The
Centers for Disease Control has predicted a 2.1
percent to 3.3 percent death rate among those who
come down with swine flu this fall, which translates
into an additional 52,000 to 86,000 deaths in the
city over a three-month period, Kasdan
said.
Has
the CDC actually predicted a 2.1-3.3% death rate for
those who come down with the swine flu?
(This is known as the "CFR", or "clinical fatality
rate", among those in the field.)
I have
been trying to source this statement - so far without
success. But if it is accurate then there are two
things you need to take away from this right here and
now:
First,
we will have an economic depression. If the CAR, or
"attack rate" (the percentage of people in the
population) who get the flu is in the typical range
of 40-60% of the population, then a CFR of 2-3% means
one million or more dead Americans this fall and
winter, or more succinctly, somewhere around one in a
hundred. If your kid goes to school with 1,000 other
people, 10 of them will die (on average.)
This sort
of disruption in the economy, given where it is now,
guarantees a contraction of GDP of 10% or more from
the top, which is the definition of economic
depression. We can argue about "how bad of a
depression" later.
Second, if these numbers are anywhere close to
reality the entire US medical care system will
effectively collapse. We do not have 10% of the
medical infrastructure necessary to treat 1 million
Americans presenting to hospitals over a 2-3 month
time frame with critical (and ultimately terminal!)
symptoms, nor can we possibly treat the ten times
greater count of people who will present to a
hospital with what look to be critical symptoms but
ultimately survive.
If
these numbers are anywhere close to accurate the
quality of medical care available in The United
States will almost instant return to 1950s-style
medicine - that is, little more than aspirin and
perhaps some antibiotics for secondary bacterial
infections, plus careful observation.
You
will be BEST OFF if you get the flu under such
circumstances attempting to tough it out at home, as
if you present to the hospital not only will there be
no advanced treatment available (simply due to lack
of beds) but in addition you will expose yourself to
secondary infections that you would otherwise not
risk.
Again
folks: These numbers portend a catastrophic outcome
for the economy over the next year if they are
accurate. There is absolutely nothing we can do about
that outcome if this is in fact an accurate estimate
of the CFR for swine flu this fall and
winter.
I
therefore
strongly recommend that you consider laying in
sufficient supplies to be able to "shelter in place"
in your home - not due to a "zombie invasion" or the
"breakdown of society", but rather as a self-defense
mechanism against acquiring secondary infections that
could literally kill you, assuming the flu does not
directly do so. You must assume, given these numbers
(if they are accurate) that you will get sick and
that once one member of your family does, or you
start to see cases pop up in your local community,
your best defense will be to "cocoon" until you have
either recovered or that particular wave of
infections in your local community has passed - a
period of time that is likely to be somewhere between
two weeks and two months in
duration.
Note
that with most viruses once you've been infected with
a particular strain and have recovered you obtain at
least partial (and sometimes complete) immunity to
that particular strain infecting you again. As such
if you or a member of your family get ill and then
recover, you should consider yourself the "designated
gatherer" and be the one to venture out to restock
supplies and such, since you should have at least
limited immunity against re-infection. The trick, of
course, will be knowing if you were in fact sick with
swine flu (and not the more-common normal seasonal
variety!) as it is likely both will be circulating at
the same time.
If you
have children in school start thinking about how you
will deal with this now, as the odds of school
administrators doing the right thing and closing
schools is quite close to zero, especially if the
so-called "response" of administrators this last
spring is any guide.